Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 34.809931 37.664579 40.779261 44.455471 48.709603 53.520137 59.433240
2025-04-27 31.253948 35.165780 39.730345 45.545308 52.903155 62.122516 74.934708
2025-05-04 28.994438 33.460938 38.910111 46.231187 56.124840 69.564801 90.311925
2025-05-11 26.940472 31.651438 37.585375 45.878654 57.671393 74.781733 103.739163
2025-05-18 25.218611 30.041759 36.271113 45.258359 58.590849 79.074758 116.822255
2025-05-25 23.686064 28.524015 34.897580 44.332037 58.828975 82.228205 128.833128
2025-06-01 22.372347 27.186123 33.634054 43.389823 58.847573 84.932000 140.869187
2025-06-08 21.131214 25.858794 32.274176 42.150948 58.194162 86.288078 150.555659
2025-06-15 20.767268 25.697634 32.528601 43.346211 61.657944 95.832902 183.837528
2025-06-22 20.044216 24.987042 31.931265 43.141873 62.673858 100.849837 208.679413
2025-06-29 19.232461 24.105649 31.022754 42.351286 62.526138 103.409766 228.093338
2025-07-06 18.404805 23.161873 29.966306 41.232019 61.634564 104.165953 242.314574
2025-07-13 18.209728 23.141668 30.329422 42.552537 65.643018 117.456299 318.621895
2025-07-20 17.942681 23.002684 30.502501 43.573626 69.270189 131.307233 426.180006
2025-07-27 17.608707 22.743093 30.463882 44.211127 72.216625 144.628429 573.470636
2025-08-03 17.095160 22.187828 29.919204 43.883488 73.030445 152.154195 712.969269
2025-08-10 16.567916 21.588528 29.269695 43.306710 73.203345 157.824570 872.007550
2025-08-17 16.019184 20.934892 28.499120 42.444700 72.606850 160.810500 1028.284494
2025-08-24 15.501527 20.310498 27.748057 41.567062 71.867839 163.147775 1211.607487
2025-08-31 14.960022 19.631925 26.880030 40.411797 70.336810 162.194391 1337.293003
2025-09-07 14.876294 19.658159 27.179803 41.526418 74.505393 185.099852 2915.414859
2025-09-14 14.559740 19.307988 26.829569 41.335964 75.370396 195.229589 5355.882709
2025-09-21 14.163984 18.820493 26.226076 40.598715 74.716162 198.377471 8680.820379